Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of October 21, 2024

Packers have the leverage over the cattle feeder reflected in lower prices and weaker basis levels. In Alberta last week, weighted average fed steer and heifer prices closed the week around $240/cwt live, $0.50/cwt lower than the previous week. Fed cattle prices did establish new second half lows. Light trade was reported this week with dressed sales were reported from $400.50-403.50/cwt FOB feedlot. Cattle that traded were scheduled for delivery throughout the month of November. U.S. packer interest was noted, and light volumes of Western Canadian fed cattle were marketed South. These cattle will be priced off the five-area average. Last week on a cash-to-cash basis, Alberta fed prices were trading at an estimated $17.50/cwt discount against the Nebraska market, the weakest basis since March.

Last week, the Canfax average feeder steer and heifer price was 4-5/cwt higher. The fall calf run is kicking into full gear and prices continue to hold up well. The calf market has experienced a counter-seasonal move higher as prices historically don’t strengthen from September to October. Last week, Alberta 550 pound steers and heifers traded $8/cwt higher. Last week, the only class of cattle to set new all-time highs was AB 3-400 pound steer and heifer calves. In certain spots grass, buyers have been very active on light weight calves. Alberta auction volumes totaled just over 42,000 head, 50,000 head smaller than last year. Only 1992, 1995, 2008 and 2012 have had 45,000 head or less through auction for the same week. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the US for the week ending October 10th were 3,294 head.

Alberta D2 cows traded fully steady and live trade was reported from $165-193/cwt. D3 cows averaged $163.75/cwt. For the first half of October, Western Canadian cow slaughter volumes were the smallest since 2015. Last week, butcher bulls traded $1/cwt higher, averaging $196.50/cwt, with a range from $180-220/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending October 10th totaled 448 head, the smallest export volume since March.

Bull

• According to USDA, the All-fresh beef retail price for the month of September was record high
• U.S. pork cutout values are trading above last year and the five-year average
• In August, Canadian beef exports to South Korea and Taiwan were above last year

Bear

• The AB/SK October 1st cattle on feed report should be viewed as slightly bearish as there was a big jump in heavier weight feedlot placement
• U.S. steer and heifer carcass weights are record large
• In Western Canada, packer lift times are stretching out