A Hot Fall Run with Signs of Cooling

Between mid-October and the first week of November, the nearby feeder cattle futures contract dropped almost $56 per cwt.

Statements by the Trump administration that beef prices are too high, followed by intentions to increase the tariff rate quota for beef imported from Argentina; a plan to increase the U.S. cattle herd; discussions between U.S. and Mexican authorities on screwworm and the potential to reopen the border (no changes yet); the Brazilian President announcing there will be an agreement with the U.S. soon to reduce the 76.5 per cent tariff from August; and the U.S. Supreme Court’s arguments regarding President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and an investigation into packer margins have all played a part in the selloff.

These recent announcements have turned the market bearish. There is potential that the main price rally is over, with prices moving mostly sideways in 2026. Expect volatility at the top until a larger North American calf crop emerges. Price pressure will come with any reduction in the tariff on Brazilian beef into the U.S. or reopening the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle.

Tighter supplies have been price supportive to the fall run. Year-to-date, Western Canadian auction volumes (auction marts and electronic/satellite sales) are down five per cent, or 111,000 head, from last year. The fall run had a slow start, with volumes down in August (–26.5 per cent) and September (–27.5 per cent), before ramping up in October (–3.6 per cent).

The Alberta 5–600 lb calf market had a significant $140 per cwt rally from its July dip. Steer calf prices in September and October were $260 per cwt stronger than last year, pushing to $680 per cwt by October. Heifer calf prices climbed a respectable $231–246 per cwt over the same period, to $608 per cwt by October. Calf prices softened in November with uncertainty about 2026.

Alberta steer calves were the most expensive in North America in September and October, averaging a $38 per cwt premium to the Ontario market and a C$65 per cwt premium to their U.S. counterparts. Year-to-date, Alberta 550 lb steer calves have averaged a $22 per cwt premium to Ontario and a C$24 per cwt premium to the U.S.

The strength of the Alberta feeder market was also seen in heavy weight, with 850 lb feeder steers coming off grass averaging $501 per cwt in September and October, with sideways movement during the height of the fall run. Feeder steers were up $167 per cwt from the same period last year.

The Alberta cow market found support during the fall run, partially in response to U.S. tariffs on Brazilian beef, the majority of which is lean manufacturing trim. That tariff was increased to 76.5 per cent in August. Alberta D2 cows averaged $223 per cwt in September and October, up $44 per cwt from last year. Based on the five-year average, Alberta D2 cows typically soften around $12 per cwt from their annual highs, generally from June or July into the fall run. However, this year, Alberta D2 cows only eased $6 per cwt over that time.

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This was first published in Volume 5 Issue 4 of ABP Magazine (Winter 2025). Watch for more digital content from the magazine on ABP Daily.