Bullish fundamentals within a roiling market

Western Canadian auction volumes (live and electronic/forward delivery) at 2.5 million head in 2025, were down seven per cent from the prior year and down 14 per cent from the 2023 high.

Of note, this is also the smallest annual volume on record going back to 2005. Total volumes were below a year ago every month except January when tariffs were first threatened against Canada, and June/July as producers looked to take advantage of a rapidly climbing calf and feeder market. 

Electronic/forward delivery volumes were steady with a year ago, accounting for 15 per cent of total auction volumes, up slightly from 2024 and just shy of the high set in 2023 at 16 per cent. Volumes spiked in June, setting the high for the year as producers looked to take advantage of what was assumed to be the top of the market.

Alberta feeder and fed markets came under pressure to end the year. Futures markets appeared to be trading news headlines as much as fundamentals. The elimination of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian beef and the expected re-opening of the U.S.-Mexican border moved live and feeder cattle contracts lower. Between October 16 and November 25, the January feeder cattle futures contract dropped $71 per cwt. Since its most recent low, the January contract clawed back almost 80 per cent of the drop and was above $362 per cwt by the first week of January. 

Alberta 550 lb steers averaged $579 per cwt in 2025, up $149 per cwt from last year and up $283 per cwt from the five-year average. A mostly steady market during the first half of the year averaging $531 per cwt gave way to summer and early fall optimism as prices topped at $680 per cwt. The calf market eased lower to end the year, finding support near $632 per cwt. 

The Alberta calf market was the premium North American market in the fourth quarter. Alberta steer calves averaged a $46 per cwt premium to their Ontario counterparts and a C$47 per cwt premium to same-weight U.S. (all area average) calves. For 2025, Alberta steer calves averaged a $27 per cwt premium to both the Ontario and U.S. markets, as feedlots bid aggressively to procure feedlot replacements. 

Alberta D2 cows averaged $215 per cwt in 2025, up $42 per cwt from 2024 and $102 per cwt above the five-year average. After finding some counter seasonal strength in the third quarter, Alberta D2 cows followed seasonal trends in the fourth quarter. Alberta D2 cows averaged a $22 per cwt premium to the Ontario market and were at a premium for 11 of 12 months. However, the Alberta market averaged a C$23 per cwt discount to U.S. Utility cows, running at a discount for the entire year. Bullish fundamentals with a rol…

Alberta bred cows averaged $4,900/head in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 25 per cent from last year and more than double the five-year average, climbing steadily right through to December. Bred cows were priced at 1.4 times the price of a 550 lb steer calf in 2025. This is steady with 2024 and an improvement on the last cycle, when bred cows spiked to 1.52 times the price of a 550 lb steer calf. At the top of the market, it’s important to maintain discipline, providing the best chance at recouping costs. Bullish fundamentals with a rol…

Record high calf prices have shifted the mindset of some producers. There have been anecdotal reports that bred cows with conformation/udder issues that would otherwise be sent for slaughter are being kept back. 

The Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement is up for renewal in 2026. All three countries have begun their respective consultation process in advance of the review, which is set to begin in July. Several industry stakeholders on both sides of the Canadian-U.S. border have expressed a desire for CUSMA to remain in its current form. 

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This was first published in Volume 6 Issue 1 of ABP Magazine (February 2026). Watch for more digital content from the magazine on ABP Daily.