Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of April 28, 2025

Alberta fed prices reach new record high in the upper $280s/cwt. Historically, from April to May, the market has rallied in 7 out of the past 10 years, with the strongest rallies occurring in the last fours years. As more fed calves enter the slaughter mix, Western Canadian steer carcass weight for the ween ending April 18th dropped to 887 pounds, down 25 pounds from the previous week. Dressed sales were reported from $480-$486/cwt, $5-$11/cwt stronger than the previous week. Buying interest was noted from all three Western Canadian packers. Cattle that traded were scheduled from immediate to second half of May delivery.

Last week, Canfax average feeder steers and heifers closed the week $1.28/cwt and $5.95/cwt stronger respectively. A stronger price tone was noted on most classes of cattle this week. Grass buyers continue to be active on 700-825 pound feeders. From an observational perspective, heifer volumes are much larger than steers, which is not uncommon for this time of the year. For week ending April 12th, Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. were at 985 head, 76 per cent smaller than a year ago. YTD exports remained 75 per cent above last year.

Last week, Alberta D2 and D3 cows traded $2/cwt stronger than the previous week establishing new record highs. D2 cows is now trading $40/cwt stronger since the start of the year, while D3 cow is trading $34/cwt higher. Alberta cows are trading at a $20+/cwt premium against the U.S. market, the largest premium since 2018. From a seasonal perspective, there is still price upside for the cow market. Over the past five years, the average price increase from April to June stands at 8 per cent.

Bull

• Fed prices establishing new record highs
• For the cow market, the average price increase from April to June over the past five years is at 8 per cent
• The Alberta cash basis was -$7.36/cwt, the strongest so far this year

Bear

• Based on the five- and ten-year average, barley prices historically strengthen over the next 30-60 days
• Western Canadian packers continue to run reduced hours
• Strengthening Canadian dollar