Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of March 10, 2025

Early last week, the U.S. government imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican products coming into the U.S.. However, on Thursday the U.S. granted an exception on any goods imported into the U.S. that are compliant with the free trade agreement (CUSMA). With all this going down, it was a volatile week on the Western Canadian cash market and bids were all over the place. In Alberta last week, average fed steer and heifer prices closed around $264/cwt live, $9/cwt lower than last week. Fed prices are the lowest since early January. Light trade was reported last week with dressed sales reported from $428.50-448.50/cwt FOB the feedlot. Cattle that traded were being scheduled for delivery anywhere from late March to the first half of April delivery. Alberta fed basis levels weakened, going from -$10.57/cwt to -$15.78/cwt last week.

Last week, the Canfax average feeder steer and heifer price was $18/cwt lower. Week over week, the large price increase was on lighter weight steer calves with prices down $26/cwt. Feeders over 800 pounds were reported $10-13/cwt weaker. Last week, Alberta auction volumes were just over 32,000 head, 1,000 head smaller than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the US for the week ending February 22nd were 6,433 head.

Last week, Alberta D2 cows traded $9/cwt lower at $193.50/cwt and live trade was reported from $170-215/cwt. D3 cows averaged $178.25/cwt. Alberta cow prices are trading at a $8.50/cwt discount against the U.S. market. Butcher bulls traded $13.50/cwt lower, averaging $204/cwt, with a range from $170-255/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending February 22nd were 277 head.

Bull

• In the U.S., higher cash prices and winter storm conditions are supporting the live cattle complex
• U.S. pork cut values are trading 5 per cent higher than last year
• Alberta fed basis levels historically strengthen from February to March

Bear

• Western Canadian fed slaughter for the week ending March 1st was 10 per cent below last year. Furthermore, this is one of the smallest non-holiday slaughter volumes since COVID-19
• In January, lower U.S. beef exports were noted Mexico, Japan, and Hong Kong
• Concerns surrounding a possible recession does not bode well for beef demand