Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of January 19, 2026

From a supply perspective, fed calf supplies are declining while yearling volumes are increasing. As more summer-placed yearlings enter the slaughter mix, carcass weights have started to seasonally decline. Last week, the Canfax average fed steer and heifer price closed around $301.50/cwt live, $4/cwt higher than the previous week. Since late November, fed prices have rallied $17/cwt. Last week, light trade was reported with dressed sales ranging from $502.50–506.50/cwt FOB the feedlot. Buying interest was noted from all Western Canadian packers. Most of the cattle that traded were scheduled for delivery in the first half of February. U.S. packer interest was noted and light volumes of Western Canadian fed cattle were marketed South on a formula price.

The Canfax steer and heifer price closed the week $10/cwt higher. The largest week-over-week price increase was on heifer calves weighing from 4–600 pounds, with prices advancing $20/cwt. Eastern Canadian buyers have been active on the Western Canadian feeder market, supporting prices. Since the second half of December, steers weighing over 900 pounds have advanced $30/cwt, hitting the highest point since late October. Last week, the forward delivery market was lightly tested, with Alberta/Saskatchewan steers weighing 800–899 pounds for March delivery trading on either side of $495/cwt. Forward delivery prices are at a slight discount compared to the spot market. Alberta auction volumes totaled just over 28,000 head, 17,000 head smaller than last year. Year-to-date 2025 Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. were 8 per cent lower than 2024.

Last week, Alberta D2 cows traded $7/cwt higher, averaging $223/cwt with a range from $200–244/cwt. D3 cows averaged $202/cwt. Butcher cow prices are trading at the highest point since the second half of October. Butcher bulls traded $2/cwt higher, averaging $227.50/cwt, with a range from $200–256/cwt. Year-to-date 2025 Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. were 6 per cent lower than 2024.

Bull

• Alberta/Saskatchewan cattle on feed inventories have moved below year-ago levels
• Canadian beef exports for the month of October were 9 per cent larger than last year
• Since late December, the Canadian dollar has dropped over 125 basis points

Bear

• For the first half of January, Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis levels are the third weakest over the past forty years
• Based on industry estimates, U.S. packer margins are estimated at $175–200 per head negative
• According to the latest World Supply and Demand report, U.S. pork and broiler production in 2026 is forecast to be 2 per cent and 1 per cent larger, respectively, compared to 2025