Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of June 26, 2023

The Canfax fed steer price closed the week at around $246.75/cwt, $0.50/cwt higher than the previous week. The story has pretty much been the same over the past few weeks – higher prices and new record highs. Last week, dressed sales were reported from $409.25-413.50/cwt FOB the feedlot. Cattle that traded were being scheduled anywhere from immediate delivery to the second half of July delivery. On a cash basis, Alberta fed prices have moved to a premium against the U.S. market. The last time Alberta fed prices were at a premium to the U.S. market was October 2021. Western Canadian fed slaughter has been below last year for nine consecutive weeks.

The Canfax average feeder steer price was $3.50/cwt lower, while heifer prices eased $2.25/cwt. This is the first significant pull back the calf market has seen this year, dropping $11-16/cwt over the past couple of weeks. Alberta 550 lb steer and heifers are trading at the lowest point since the middle of April. Heavier-weight feeders weighing more than 900 lb traded $1/cwt lower. Alberta auction volumes continue to be ample for this time of the year. Weekly auction volumes totaled just over 17,000 head, 5,000 head more than the same week last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending June 10 totaled 2,892 head.

Alberta D2 cows traded mostly steady, and live trade was reported from $138‑166/cwt. D3 cows averaged $135.50/cwt. Butcher bulls traded slightly lower, averaging $161.50/cwt, with a trading range from $150-178/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending June 10 totaled 650 head, 32% lower than the same week last year. YTD Western Canadian cow slaughter is 6% larger than last year.

Bull:

• From January to April, Canadian beef exports to the U.S. and Mexico are up 4% and 35% respectively compared to last year.
• Western Canadian feedlot margins are positive.
• Weekly U.S. beef production was estimated at 527 million pounds for the second half of June. This is the smallest production since 2017.

Bear:

• USDA’s June 1 cattle on feed report should be viewed as slightly bearish as May placements came in higher than expected.
• Western Canadian weekly cow slaughter volumes were the largest since March.
• U.S. 90% lean trim prices have been disappointing relative to the strength that Choice and Select cutout values have seen.