Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of May 20, 2025

It was another exciting week for the fed cattle market with new highs being established. Fed prices have trended steady to higher for the past ten weeks. The Canfax average fed steer and heifer price closed around $296.50/cwt live, $3.50/cwt higher than previous week. Light trade was reported last week with dressed sales reported from $492.00-498.50/cwt FOB the feedlot. Buying interest was noted from all Western Canadian packers. Cattle that traded and bid on were being scheduled anywhere from immediate to early June delivery. Last week’s Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis was reported at +$0.33/cwt, the strongest basis seen this year. For the week ending May 10th, Western Canadian fed slaughter totaled 36,000 head, 7 per cent lower than last year.

Last week, the Canfax average feeder steer and heifer prices were $8-12/cwt lower. Despite a softer tone, calf and feeder prices continue to hold near high levels. Year over year, calf prices under 500 pounds are trading around $140/cwt higher while feeders over 800 pounds are $70/cwt higher. Last week, the forward delivery market was lightly tested. AB/SK steers weighing from 900-1000 pounds for August/ September delivery traded from $400-415/cwt. Forward delivery prices are at a premium compared to the spot market. Alberta auction volumes were just over 18,000 head, 2,000 head smaller than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the US for the week ending May 3rd totaled 423 head.

Last week, Alberta D2 cows traded $4.50/cwt lower averaging $227/cwt with a range from $200-252/cwt. D3 cows averaged $205.25/cwt. Butcher bulls traded $8.50/cwt lower, averaging $241/cwt, with a range from $220-280/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the US for the week ending May 3rd were 516 head.

Bull

• For the month of May, Alberta/Saskatchewan cattle on feed inventories are the smallest since 2018
• Alberta cow prices are the highest in North America
• For the first half of May, Canadian Prime and AAA grading is record high

Bear

• Last week, U.S. announced it would once again suspend import of Mexican feeder cattle due to spread of New World Screwworm. This will put further pressure on the Southern U.S. packing segment.
• From a retail/food service perspective, pork and poultry is more competitively priced compared to beef which could act as headwinds for the beef market.
• Based on industry estimates, U.S. packer’s margins are in the red anywhere from $175-250/head