Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of May 26, 2025

The Canfax average fed steer and heifer price closed around $298/cwt live, $1.50/cwt higher than previous week. Fed cattle prices are $38-39/cwt higher than a year ago. Light trade was reported last week with dressed sales reported from $494.00-498.50/cwt FOB the feedlot. Buying interest was noted from all Western Canadian packers. Cattle that traded were being scheduled anywhere from immediate to the second half of July delivery. U.S. packer interest was noted, and light volumes of Western Canadian fed cattle were marketed South. Despite U.S. packer interest, Canadian slaughter cattle exports to the U.S. have slowed drastically over the past few weeks.

In terms of prices, it has been a volatile week for the calf and feeder market, but the general trend has been stronger especially on load lot groups of cattle. Last week, the Canfax average feeder steer price was down $2.50/cwt while heifers strengthened $3/cwt. Last week, heifers weighing 5-700 pounds traded $1-4/cwt lower. And 850 pound steers traded $7/cwt higher establishing new annual highs. Over the past 25 years, 850 pound feeder steers have never established annual highs in May. From a seasonal perspective, there is still more price upside over the next 30-60 days. Alberta auction volumes were just over 16,000 head, 4,000 head larger than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the US for the week ending May 10th totaled 1,302 head.

Last week, Alberta D2 cows traded $1/cwt higher averaging $228/cwt with a range from $190-250/cwt. D3 cows averaged $206/cwt. Butcher bulls traded fully steady, averaging $237/cwt, with a range from $220-270/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending May 10th were 456 head.

Bull

• Western Canadian feedlot inventories are current, and feedlots have leverage over the packing segment
• Since the start of the year Loin primal values have increased 25 per cent, setting new annual highs last week
• According to the latest USDA cattle on feed report, May 1st cattle on feed inventories are 2 per cent below last year

Bear

• Feedlot breakeven a record high going into the second half of the year
• Canadian beef exports in the first quarter have been running below last year, YTD (Jan-Mar) 2025 beef exports to U.S., Japan, and Taiwan are all below last year
• U.S. beef cutout values typically start to decline following the Memorial Day holiday