Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of November 27, 2023

Alberta fed prices continued to trend contra seasonally lower last week on waning cash market leverage. The bulk of trade was reported dressed from $380-385/cwt delivered, steady to $5/cwt lower than previous week rail bids.

Light live trade was also reported at $226/cwt freight on board (FOB) the feedlot. Weighted average steer prices eased $1.46/cwt lower than the previous week’s market tone, average $228.19/cwt.

Heifer trade was comparable with steers, but sale volumes were limited and not repeatable. Year-to-date (YTD) western fed slaughter was six per cent lower than the same week last year to 1,868,961 head. Fed cattle/cow exports to the U.S. for the week ending November 11 have trended larger over the past three weeks to 13,812 head.

Auction volumes in all provinces have started to tighten quite dramatically and total auction volumes in B.C., Alta., Sask., and Man., were 43,000 head below last year. Over the past month, 500 pound heifer calves have been trading at a $53/cwt discount compared to their steer mates.

From a breakeven perspective, heifer calves have a $2/cwt cheaper fed price breakeven compared to their steer makes, which is based on Canfax trends data. The tough spot on the market has been heavier weight feeders. Over the past month, 900+ pound steer and heifer prices have declined $10/cwt.

Butcher cow prices have struggled in November, declining over $13/cwt. Alberta cow prices are now trading at the lowest point since early March. Meanwhile, the opposite has occurred in Eastern Canada as Ontario cow prices have rallied $13/cwt.

Western Canadian cow slaughter for the week ending November 18 totaled just over 8,900 head, which is 5 per cent lower than last year. Despite larger cow slaughter volumes in western Canada over the past few months, it should be highlighted Canadian cow exports to the U.S. were above last year for August and September. For the month of September Canadian cow exports were the largest since 2015.

Bull

• Total red meat in cold storage at the end of October was down 14 per cent from last year
• Market ready supplies should moderate moving forward
• Western barley price continues to ease lower

Bear

• Cattle futures will need to strengthen and stabilize to encourage stronger cash prices
• Post U.S. Thanksgiving buying interest is lackluster
• Out front packers slaughter inventories are ample