Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of October 28, 2024

Alberta fed prices continue to hover around $240/cwt, while U.S. fed prices are within a couple dollars of their record highs set back in June. In Western Canada, feedlot margins have recently turn negative and breakeven are projected to be higher going forward. Dressed sales is reported at $403-408/cwt delivered. All three Western Canadian packers bought cattle but lift time vary depending on packers. Cattle that traded were scheduled for delivery from second half of November to second half of December. U.S. packer interest was noted with light volumes marketed South priced off the five-area average.

Last week, Alberta auction volumes were over 80,000 head as the fall calf run has finally kicked into full gear. Lightweight steer calves 3-500 lb rallied $19-27/cwt from last week. Lightweight heifer calves 3-600 lb traded $22-25/cwt stronger than the previous week. All classes of feeder cattle are now trading above last year. The last time similar auction volumes trends were seen was 2013, which lead to four consecutive weeks with over 70,000 head. In that year, 3-500 lb steer calves and 3-600 lb heifer calves established annual highs in the second half of October. For the week ending October 12th, feeder cattle exports to the U.S. were 4,399 head.

The non-fed market was mixed this week, as seasonally larger volumes pressured prices. Alberta D2 and D3 cows both traded lower averaging $173 and $162/cwt respectively. Butcher bulls were fully steady averaging $197/cwt. YTD non-fed slaughter was 331,300 head, 18 per cent smaller than last year and 12 per cent smaller than the five-year average. YTD non-fed exports are 8 per cent larger than last year but 10 per cent smaller than the five-year average.

Bull

• Calf run is kicking into full gear with calves rallying.
• U.S. fed prices are within a couple dollars of record high set back in June.
• YTD U.S. beef cow and dairy cow slaughter is down 17 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively.

Bear

• Alberta fed prices are at the lowest point since April.
• U.S. October 1st cattle on feed inventories were 11.6 million, the fourth largest since reporting started.
• Third lowest Alberta fed cattle cash-to-future basis for the same week in the last decade.