Canfax weekly article | Report for the week of September 28, 2026

Based on the ten-year average, it is not uncommon to see the second half of the year’s price low occur in September. Over the past couple of weeks, Alberta fed prices have been trading at a $15–$17/cwt discount against the Nebraska market. For the second half of September, cash-to-cash basis levels are the weakest since 2004/2005. From a supply perspective, the market is likely in the process of working through peak supplies. The summer price decline for the fed market has exceeded both the 5- and 10-year averages. As margins have improved, packers have ramped up weekly volumes heading into October. This will be critical to work through current supplies in advance of any fourth quarter price rally.

Last week, Alberta auction volumes were 33,947 head; 16,356 head of those were sold through electronic/video sales. The remaining 17,591 head were cash sales through commercial auction facilities. This is the largest cash sales volume since April. With the calf run underway and more pre-sort sales taking place, this should be supportive to the feeder market and provide more price stability. Canfax average feeders closed the week around $6/cwt higher, with calves trading $19–$25/cwt stronger. Recently, the spread between cash sales and forward delivery for October–December has narrowed, with forward delivery at a modest $5/cwt premium over current cash. This convergence has been driven primarily by the strengthening cash market.

Alberta auction volumes have begun to seasonally increase as the fall run gets underway. Some cow-calf pairs are being split, with older cows, or those with poor disposition, being sent to auction. Non-holiday Western Canadian cow slaughter has been above a year ago since early May. However, part of the increase has come from fed cows. Alberta D2 cows ended the week fully steady with last week, finding support near mid-November 2025 levels. The D3 cow market was also steady this week. Feeder cows were $1/cwt stronger. Butcher bulls eased almost $4/cwt. Railgrade cows ranged from $370–$400/cwt, steady to $15/cwt softer than the previous week.

Bull

• Packers have started to tighten lift times.
• The nearby feeder cattle contract closed $11.42/cwt higher last Friday compared with the previous week.
• Calves traded $19–$25/cwt stronger.

Bear

• Alberta fed prices are trading at a discount against the Nebraska market.
• Carcass weights traditionally don’t peak until late November.
• Over the last six weeks, corn has rallied $40/tonne.