Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of September 25, 2023

The Canfax fed steer price closed the week at around $231.75/cwt, $0.50/cwt lower than the previous week. Alberta fed prices have averaged in the low $230s/cwt for the past six weeks. Competition on the cash market was decent with all three Western Canadian packers buying cattle. Last week, dressed sales were reported from $387‑388.50/cwt FOB the lot. Cattle that traded were being booked for delivery from the week of October 7 to October 30. Last week, the Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis was reported at -$16.50/cwt, the weakest since March. No cash sales to the U.S. were confirmed; however, U.S. packers were looking at formula pricing Western Canadian fed cattle.

The Canfax average feeder steer price was $3/cwt stronger, while heifer prices were steady. Week over week, the largest price gains were on 3-500 lb steers with prices advancing $5-8/cwt. Heifers weighing over 700 lb were $1-4/cwt stronger. The Western Canadian calf and feeder index both closed the week higher. Alberta auction volumes totaled just more than 100,000 head, 43,000 head larger than the same week last year. It should be noted that more than 50% of the auction volumes were electronic/video sales. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending September 9 totaled 4,769 head.

Alberta D2 cows traded $3.50/cwt lower and live trade was reported from $125‑145/cwt. D3 cows averaged $123/cwt. Alberta cow prices are now trading at a discount to both the Ontario and U.S. markets. Last week butcher bulls traded $4.50/cwt lower, averaging $155/cwt, with a trading range from $142‑175/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending September 9 totaled 748 head, 34% lower than the same week last year.

Bull:

• From their highs in June, fed prices have only declined 6%. In general, the summer fed market has outperformed expectations.
• The All-fresh beef retail price for October was record high.
• Last Wednesday, daily boxed beef load counts on the spot market for 0–21-day delivery were the largest since October 2022.

Bear:

• September 1 cattle on feed inventories in the Northern U.S. states (Washington, Iowa, Minnesota, Idaho) remain above last year.
• For the middle of September, Western Canadian steer carcass weights are the second largest on record.
• Alberta fed basis levels are weaker than last year and the five-year average.