Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of April 8, 2024

In Alberta last week, fed steer and heifer prices closed at $242-244/cwt live, up $5-6 from the previous week.

Dressed sales were reported from $400-415/cwt delivered. This brought fed prices back to the historical high observed in June 2023. There was good packer interest and cattle traded are expected to be delivered within one-to-two weeks, with a few deliveries in mid-May.

With the strong rally last week, the Alberta cash-to-future basis reached -$0.08/cwt. For the short week ending March 30th, Canadian fed slaughter was down 25 per cent to 41,711 head. Year-to-date (YTD) slaughter totaled 651,774 head, down 3 per cent from last year.

Last week Alberta auction volumes at 16,299 head, were down 33 per cent from last year. Since the news of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continued to be the topic of discussion, the live cattle future has dropped $13/cwt over the past two weeks.

Last week, grass type steers traded steady to $9/cwt stronger while heavyweight steers were $2 to 6/cwt softer. Similarly, most heifers last week traded $3 to 7/cwt softer.

For the week ending March 23rd, feeder cattle exports to the U.S. totaled 3,431 head, up 28 per cent from last year. YTD export at 30,358 head, are up 7 per cent from a year ago.

Last week, Alberta D2 cows traded $6/cwt higher to $171.68/cwt, marking a new historical high. Similarly, Ontario D2 cows set a new historical high at $154.99/cwt, trading $5.49/cwt stronger. For the week ending March 30th, Canadian cow carcass weights average 790 pounds, putting it near the historical high.

With heavier cows coming to market, there has been an increase in D4 grades. YTD Canadian D4 grade cows 117 per cent larger than last year.

Bull

• Tighter fed yearling supplies will support the fed market in the second quarter
• Alberta fed cash to future basis has reached an annual high
• Record corn production show limit upside for corn prices

Bear

• Uncertainty on cattle HPAI news continues to significantly impact the cattle futures market
• Canadian YTD fed slaughter remain well below last year
• Canadian steer carcass weight remains well above five-year historical average