Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of July 24, 2023

Western Canadian fed cattle prices continued to soften as we head into the dog days of summer. This is not unusual; between June and August, fed steer prices have softened in seven of the last ten years, and 13 of the last 20 years. Steers eased $1.50/cwt lower to $238/cwt, and heifers were down $1/cwt to $237/cwt last week. The Alberta to Nebraska cash-to-cash basis weakened considerably last week to -$9/cwt and is the weakest for this time of year since 2010. Dressed sales eased $1-2/cwt lower last week, with both steers and heifers at $400/cwt delivered. The latest Trends report shows significant per-head profit on all classes of cattle marketed on the spot/cash market in July.

After a slight price pullback in June, the calf market has rebounded back to record high levels. The feeder market has also picked up momentum over the past month, with the steer/heifer spread also narrower. Feeders over 800 lb. set new annual highs. Over the past 25 years, heavier-weight feeder prices have never set annual highs in July, suggesting there is still more upside to the market. Based on the five and ten-year indices it is more common to see highs occur in late September and early October. Ontario and U.S. corn prices are trading at the lowest point since late 2021. From a cost of gain perspective, both Eastern Canada and the U.S. continue to have a sizable advantage over Western Canada. On a cash-to-cash basis, U.S. feedlots currently have a CDN $104/tonne feed grain price advantage over the west. As a result, U.S. buyers have been active on the yearling market.

Year-to-date, Canadian cow slaughter is more than 263,000 head, 5% larger than last year. Over the past ten years this stands as the third-largest cow slaughter volume. From January to May, Canadian cow exports to the U.S. are down 26% compared to last year. With dry conditions across part of the Prairies, non-fed volumes continue to be much larger than normal. Butcher cow prices traded $1/cwt lower through commercial auction facilities and dressed sales were also lower as well. Over the past month, Alberta cow prices have been trading at a $13-15/cwt premium against the U.S. Utility cow market.

Bull:

• YTD U.S. cattle slaughter is down 4% from last year and 1% from the five-year average.
• Alberta feeders over 800 lb. continue to climb higher.
• Forward delivery prices for fall are at a considerable premium to the spot market.

Bear:

• USDA July 1 feedlot placements were considerably higher than expected.
• Canadian cow slaughter is 5% larger than last year.
• Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal.