Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of October 31, 2022

The Canfax fed steer and heifer price closed the week at $181/cwt, $1/cwt higher than the previous week. Last week, dressed sales were reported from $300.00-300.50/cwt FOB the lot. Pick up dates were all over the map depending on which packer bought the cattle. Cattle were being scheduled anywhere from late November to mid-December delivery. Light volumes of AB fed cattle traded to the U.S. Depending on freight and dressing percentage, U.S. sales were working back to the mid 180’s/cwt FOB lot. Sales to the U.S. were at a premium over local deals. Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis was reported at -$23.35/cwt, for the end of October this is the weakest basis since 2004.

The Canfax average feeder steer price was $1.50/cwt higher, while heifer prices eased $0.50/cwt. Heifers weighting over 800 lb traded $2-4/cwt lower, while same weight steers traded steady to $2/cwt stronger. Alberta 5-600 lb steer and heifer price has strengthened for two consecutive weeks, gaining $3.50/cwt. Western Canadian calf and feeder indices closed the week at $261.08/cwt and $243.97/cwt respectively. Last week, Alberta auction volumes totaled 92,000 head, 3,000 head smaller than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending October 15^th totaled 1,158 head, the smallest weekly feeder export volume to the U.S. seen this year.

Alberta D2 cows traded $6/cwt lower last week, and live trade was reported from $90‑109/cwt. D3 cows averaged $86.50/cwt. Butcher cow prices are at the lowest point since early April. Butcher bulls traded $3.50/cwt lower, averaging $127.50/cwt and trade was reported from $110-146/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending October 15^th totaled 987 head, 45% higher than the same week last year.

Bull.

• 2023 global beef production is forecasted to be down 0.22% compared to 2022.
• U.S. rib primal values are trading at the highest point this year.
• With lower Alberta/ Saskatchewan feedlot placement this summer, fed supplies should start to tighten .

Bear.

• Based on five-year average Alberta fed basis levels historically weaken from October to November.
• According to USDA for the end of September beef and pork in cold storage is larger than last year.
• U.S. hide values have struggled, trading below the five-year average.