Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of October 9, 2023

The Canfax fed steer and heifer price closed the week around $232.75/cwt, $0.50/cwt higher than the previous week. Fed cattle prices are $52/cwt higher than last year. Competition on the cash market was decent, with all three Western Canadian packers buying cattle. Last week, dressed sales were reported from $387.75‑389.50/cwt FOB the lot. Cattle that traded were being booked for late October to early November delivery. Alberta fed prices have been trading at a $15-17/cwt discount against the Nebraska market. Given historically weak basis levels, a few more Canadian-fed cattle are being shipped into the U.S. for slaughter.  

The Canfax average feeder steer price was $2.50/cwt lower, while heifer prices eased $5.50/cwt. Week over week, the largest price declines were on 5-600 lb heifers and 6-700 lb steers, with prices declining $8-12/cwt. Heifers weighing more than 800 lb were $6/cwt weaker. The bright spot on the market was light-weight calves weighing from 3-400 lb, as prices were fully steady. The Western Canadian feeder index closed the week $340.28/cwt, $2.50/cwt weaker. Alberta auction volumes totaled just more than 55,000 head, 7,700 head more than the same week last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending September 23 totaled 4,026 head.

Alberta D2 cows traded $0.50/cwt lower, and live trade was reported from $120‑139/cwt. D3 cows averaged $118/cwt. Alberta cow prices have declined for seven consecutive weeks, dropping $20/cwt. Alberta cow prices are at the lowest point since April. Last week, butcher bulls traded $0.50/cwt lower, averaging $157/cwt, with a trading range from $140‑176/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending September 23 totaled 925 head, 29% lower than the same week last year.

Bull:

• U.S. beef cow slaughter has been running below last year and the five-year average.
• For the second half of September, Canadian Prime grading percentage has been record high.
• Beef retail featuring should pick up after Thanksgiving.

Bear:

• Alberta fed basis levels historically weaken from September to October.
• U.S. beef exports for the month of August were 21% lower than last year and is the tenth consecutive month that exports have been below last year.
• Feeder cattle futures contracts have had a tough month since mid-September front end feeder contracts have declined over $15/cwt.