USDA lowers beef production forecasts as feed grain supplies grow

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its beef production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

For 2026, USDA lowered its beef production forecastin the second half of the year, as lower expected steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights more than offset higher cow slaughter.

The agency also reduced its 2027 beef production forecast. Lower-than-expected feedlot placements during the second half of 2026 are expected to slow cattle marketings in the first quarter of 2027, while lighter dressed weights also contributed to the lower outlook.

Despite the lower beef production forecasts, USDA left its cattle price forecasts unchanged for both 2026 and 2027.

USDA raised its beef import forecast for 2026, primarily due to stronger shipments from Australia. The import forecast was also raised for the second half of 2027, on expectations of larger global supplies. Beef export forecasts were unchanged for both years.

The pork outlook moved lower, with USDA reducing production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. The agency cited a slower pace of slaughter, lighter dressed weights and a smaller pig crop reported in the September Hogs and Pigs report. Pork export forecasts were also lowered for both years due to lower production and weaker shipments to Western Hemisphere markets.

Meanwhile, broiler and turkey production forecasts were raised based on current slaughter, weight, and hatchery data. The broiler export forecast was increased on stronger demand from Caribbean markets, while the turkey export forecast was raised based on the recent pace of exports and increased production. Turkey price forecasts for both years also moved higher on tight supplies of whole birds.

On the crop side, USDA increased its 2026/27 U.S. corn production forecast by 234 million bushels to 16 billion bushels as the projected yield rose to 181.2 bushels per acre.

Corn ending stocks were raised by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion bushels, while the season-average farm price was lowered by 10 cents to US$4.70 per bushel.

USDA increased U.S. wheat feed and residual use by 10 million bushels after first-quarter grain stocks data indicated stronger-than-expected domestic disappearance. Globally, wheat consumption was raised on higher feed and residual use in China and the European Union.

The report also increased Canada’s wheat production estimate by 500,000 tonnes to 36.5 million tonnes on higher yields and raised Canada’s wheat export forecast.

World corn ending stocks were increased by 8.3 million tonnes to 280.4 million tonnes, largely reflecting larger U.S. supplies.