Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of December 25, 2023

In Alberta last week, the weighted average price was $219/cwt live, down $1.60/cwt from the previous week. Dressed trade was reported from $362-363/cwt FOB, $3.75-7.00/cwt lower. Heifer trade was too light to establish a weekly trend. Steer carcass weights in the West last week were 983 lb, re-establishing a new all-time high and were two lbs heavier than the previous week. Carcass weights last week were 31 lb heavier than the same week last year, and 55 lb heavier than the five-year average for the same week. Lift times are around seven weeks out. Depending on the packer, weight break discounts are at 1,050-1,100 lb.

The Canfax average feeder steer price was $5.58/cwt lower, while heifer prices eased $1.99/cwt. Over the past month, the largest price decline has been on 3-400 lb calves with prices dropping $12-18/cwt. Feeders weighing over 800 lb are trading at the lowest point since June. In November, the 450 lb steer-heifer price spread was record large averaging $90/cwt. Last week, the 450 lb steer-heifer price spread was closer to $70/cwt. For the month of October, Canadian imports of U.S. feeder cattle totaled just under 37,000 head, 23% lower than last year.

Butcher cows have averaged in the upper $120s/cwt for the past three weeks. This past week was the last full week for packers and feeder cow buyers to procure cows through the ring before the holidays, and prices were mostly steady. Over the past month, Alberta cow prices have gone from a $10/cwt discount to the U.S. market to now trading par.

Bull:

• Alberta D2 cows are trading at par with U.S. Utility cows.
• Alberta cow-calf margins were record high in 2023.
• Demand for 2024 grass cattle is beginning to pick up.

Bear:

• U.S. cattle on feed inventories were above expectations.
• Fed cattle on the cash market continues to move lower.
• Domestic 85% lean trim is trading at a discount to Australian 90% lean trim.