Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of April 7, 2025

On April 2nd, the U.S. administration announced a wide swath of reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries. For the Canadian cattle industry, the best-case scenario materialized. Canadian products under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) continue to be exempt from U.S. tariffs. Last week, Alberta fed prices established new record highs. Fed steer and heifer prices closed around $283/cwt live, $1.50/cwt higher than the previous week. Over the past four weeks, fed prices have rallied $13/cwt. Light trade was reported last week with dressed sales reported from $461.50-468.50/cwt FOB the feedlot. All three Western Canadian packers procured cattle and US packer interest was also supportive.

Last week, the Canfax average feeder steer and heifer prices were $8-10/cwt lower. Week over week, the largest declines were on feeders over 900 pounds with prices off $13-16/cwt. Alberta 550 pound steers traded $5/cwt softer hitting the lowest point since early March. Demand for replacement breeding quality heifers seem to be good. Over the past couple of weeks, breeding quality heifers have traded from $3,000-3,700/head. Alberta auction volumes were just over 14,000 head, 3,000 head smaller than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the US for the week ending March 22nd were 9,074 head.

Last week, Alberta D2 cows traded $11/cwt lower averaging $195/cwt and live trade was reported from $180-216/cwt. D3 cows averaged $185/cwt. Feeder cow buyers were very active on the non-fed market. Butcher bulls traded $11/cwt lower, averaging $223/cwt, with a range from $200-265/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the US for the week ending March 22nd were 480 head.

Bull

• Based off the five-year average, Alberta fed basis levels historically strengthen from March to April
• In February, U.S. beef exports to South Korea and Philippines were above last year
• The USDA March 1st quarterly hogs and pigs report should be viewed as bullish as total hog supplies came in below industry estimates.

Bear

• Chinese registrations of U.S. beef plants expired on March 16th and have not been updated, effectively closing the market
• There has been a lot of talk and speculation that freshly implemented tariffs could put North American into a recession and drive-up inflation
• On the past two days, live cattle contracts have declined 800 points