Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of April 14, 2025

Alberta fed prices continued to hover around record-high levels in the low $280’s/cwt. Over the past decade, 8 out of 10 annual highs have been set in the first half of the year, as spring is seasonally when the fed market typically peaks. Dressed sales were reported from $475/cwt, $5/cwt stronger than the previous week. Buying interest was noted from all three Western Canadian packers. Cattle that traded were scheduled from immediate to early May delivery. After four consecutive weeks on the Canadian market, there was no U.S. buying interest this week. Alberta cash-to-futures basis was -$1/cwt, the strongest reported for the year and steady with the five-year average, this is the fourth consecutive week that basis has strengthened.

Last week, Canfax average feeder cattle closed the week $8/cwt stronger than the previous week. Alberta 4-500 pound calves and 7-800 pound feeders established new record highs. Feedlots appear bullish on the supply side of the market and record high fed prices seem to be fueling demand for bunk replacement. For the first quarter of this year, Canadian feeder cattle exports are the largest since 2019. Western Canadian packers could be forced to strengthen basis contracts to slow the follow of feeder cattle going South. Alberta cow-calf pairs were trading at $5,250/pair, $1400/pair stronger than last year, while bred cows averaged $4,275/head.

Last week, Alberta D2 and D3 cows traded $16/cwt and $13/cwt stronger respectively, establishing new record highs. With strong prices, producers appear to be wasting little time getting culls to town. Alberta cow prices have moved to a premium against the U.S. market. Over the past twenty years, the first half annual highs have occurred in April only once in 2009, suggesting that higher prices are still in front of us.

Bull

• Seasonally spring is typically when the fed market peask
• AB/SK April 1st cattle on feed inventories are the smallest since 2018
• Alberta cash-to-futures basis was the strongest so far for the year at -$1/cwt

Bear

• Volatility in live cattle contracts
• Tariffs and fueling trade war remains a concern
• No U.S. buying interest after four consecutive weeks on the Canadian fed market