Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of December 23, 2024

Fed steers and heifers in Alberta closed last week $3-4 higher than the previous week, averaging $256/cwt. Dressed sales were from $418-420/cwt delivered, around $2/cwt higher than the previous week. Live sales were $262-265/cwt FOB the feedlot. U.S. packer interest was noted, and trade to the U.S. was at a premium to local deals. Heading into the holidays, many producers have marketed the cattle they needed to, and sale volumes were light last week. Last week, the Alberta cash basis was -$23/cwt, one of the weakest this year. Quality grading continues to impress.

YTD (to week ending December 20th), Alberta auction volumes were 11% smaller than last year and 3% smaller than the five-year average. Last week, the Canfax average Alberta steer and heifer prices were steady with the previous week, with a stronger tone noted on heifers and a softer tone on steers. Forward delivery sales of 8-900 lb steers for February delivery were at a $20/cwt premium to the cash price. Last week, average bred heifer prices eased around $550 per head lower than the previous week.

Alberta D2 and D3 cows through commercial auction facilities traded $4-5/cwt stronger last week. Bulls were $1/cwt stronger, feeder cows were up $3/cwt, and railgrade cows were $5-10/cwt stronger. Packers may have been looking to secure supplies in anticipation of light auction volumes over the next couple of weeks. For the month of November, western Canadian cow slaughter totaled 26,000 head, the third smallest volume for November since 2005, behind only 2015 and 2020.

Bull

• Choice and Select cutouts were 1-2% stronger last week.
• The Alberta cull market has found some strength to end the year.
• The softer Canadian dollar should be supportive to beef exports.

Bear

• Feedlot breakevens to begin 2025 are record high.
• Consumer demand and political announcements are expected to increase volatility.
• California declared a state of emergency in response to bird flu, which may have contributed to the sell-off on the futures market.