Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of February 27, 2024

There wasn’t enough trade for Alberta fed cattle last week to establish a price, but rail sales were stronger than previous week, and heifer prices softened.

Canadian fed cattle and cow exports to the US for week ending February 10th were 21 per cent higher compared to last year and are up 2 per cent year-to-date (YTD). Canadian fed slaughter for the week ending February 17th total 49,000 head, down 7 per cent from the same week last year, and YTD is down 2.6 per cent from last year.

Ontario dressed sales remain steady compared to last week, but the cash-to-future basis is significantly stronger this time compared to last year.

Last week, Alberta calves and light weight stockers weighing 4-700 pounds all established a new record high. Barley prices are currently trading at the lowest point since December 2020. Spot barley prices have dropped around $30/tonne over the last two months.

Alberta heifers weighting over 1,000 pounds for September delivery traded at $308/cwt. Forward delivery prices are record high. Over the past couple of weeks, there have been quite a few bred heifer trading electronically. Bred heifers in BC and AB traded from $3,200-3,600/head.

Over the past two months, the non-fed market has performed much better than the fed market. Butcher cow prices have railed $23/cwt since the start of the year and are within $13/cwt of their record high set in June 2023. Alberta cow prices have been trading at discounts to the US market, but this week is moved to a slight premium.

Over the past five years, from fall lows to spring high on average cow prices have rallied 53 per cent. This seems ambitious but tighter cow numbers are in front of us and will be price supportive.

Bull

• Recent historical low for Alberta’s fed basis suggested a much strong month in March
• Mid-weight feeder steers have potential higher prices in front of us
• Cow prices are on track to a spring high in the upcoming weeks

Bear

• Weak butcher bulls to U.S. the past six weeks, while slaughter number remain low
• Carcass weight remain high but are starting to come down
• Feeder cattle exports to the U.S. are down 19 per cent YTD