Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of February 3, 2025

Alberta fed prices last week closed the week with record high prices. Fed steers averaged in the mid $270s/cwt, $8/cwt stronger than the previous week. Historically from December to January fed steers rallied $5/cwt, but this year has been stronger than usual at $12/cwt. Dressed sales were reported at $460/cwt, $10-15/cwt stronger than last week. All three Western Canadian packers showed interest, while U.S. interest remained quiet. Cattle that traded were scheduled for delivery in 1-2 weeks. The nearby live cattle futures contract has rallied $11/cwt since the start of the month.

Last week, Alberta auction volumes were 27,463 head, slightly larger than a year ago. The feeder market had a solid week. Canfax average feeder steer and heifer closed the week $4 and $5/cwt stronger respectively. With calf and feeder prices hitting new highs, this is clearly a sellers’ market. From a margin perspective, feedlots are facing record high break evens with the heavier feeders over 700 [pimds having break evens in the low to mid $280/cwt. For week ending January 18th, feeder cattle exports to the US were at 2,398 head, up 13 per cent from last year. YTD feeder exports remain slightly below last year.

Last week, Alberta D2 and D3 cows traded $6/cwt stronger than the previous week, butcher bulls also traded $4/cwt higher. Since the start of the year, butcher cow prices have increased $8/cwt and prices are at the highest point since late August. The five-year average increase from fall lows to spring highs is 59%, putting cows on track to peak around $260/cwt. Higher prices are expected but cow prices will likely not hit that price.

Bull

• Feed prices reached new record highs and having a solid rally in January.
• Strong week for Alberta feeder cattle.
• Stable Alberta barley prices.

Bear

• U.S. tariffs were announced on Saturday, February 1, 2025.
• Alberta hay prices remain 17 per cent above the five-year average.
• The Alberta fed cash-to-future basis remains significantly weaker than the five-year average.