Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of January 13, 2025

In Alberta last week, the weighted average fed steer and heifer prices closed the week around $265/cwt, $8/cwt higher than the previous week. Fed cattle prices did establish new record highs. Light trade was reported last week with dressed sales reported from $432.75-436.50/cwt FOB the feedlot. U.S. packer interest was supportive and light volumes of Western Canadian fed cattle were marketed South. Negotiated cash sales to the U.S. were $265-275/cwt FOB feedlot and were at a premium over local deals. Last week’s Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis was reported at -$11.78/cwt, steady with the five-year average.

Calf and feeder prices were stronger compared to the end of December. Last week, Alberta 850 pound steers averaged around $375/cwt, $78/cwt higher than last year. Heifer calves weighing from 5-600 pounds were $24/cwt higher compared to the second half of December. Buying interest from Eastern Canada feedlot has been strong on the western market, especially on heavier weight feeders. Alberta auction volumes were just over 11,000 head, 7,000 head smaller than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending December 28th totaled 897 head. In 2024, Canadian feeder exports to the US were down 18 per cent compared to 2023.

Last week, Alberta D2 cows average in the low $180’s/cwt, $7/cwt higher compared to the end of December. Rail bids/sales were also stronger ranging from $350-355/cwt delivered. Butcher bulls averaged $199.50/cwt, with a range from $180-215/cwt, to be the highest since early October. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending December 28th were 135 head. In 2024, butcher bull exports to the U.S. were 12 per cent lower than 2023.

Bull

• Live cattle contracts established new highs last week
• U.S. beef exports for the month of November were 11 per cent higher than last year
• The union representing 45,000 dock workers on the East and Gulf coast reached a tentative agreement

Bear

• January is traditionally a weaker beef demand month as Christmas bills come due
• USDA December 1st Hogs and Pigs report should be viewed as slightly bearish
• Packer margins in the US remain negative. With tighter cattle supplies projected for this year processing margins could stay in the red for the better part of 2025