Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of January 20, 2025

Alberta fed prices continue to rally closing the week in the $270’s/cwt. Establishing new record highs. Dressed sales were reported from $437.00-$442.00/cwt, $2.00-$4.00/cwt stronger than the previous week. There was good competition with all three Western Canadian packers participating. Cattle that traded were scheduled anywhere from immediate to mid-February delivery. U.S. interest was noted with premium over local deals. The Alberta cash-to-futures basis remained weak at -$14.07/cwt. This is the third weakest basis for the same week in the past decade.

Last week, Alberta auctions reported seasonally large volumes at 46,280 heads. This was driven by decent weather, record high prices and threat of possible US tariffs. Eastern Canadian buyers have been fairly active on 7-1000 pouned steers. Canfax average feeder steer and heifer closed the week $6/cwt and $8/cwt higher respectively. For week ending January 4th, feeder cattle exports to the U.S. were at 925 head, down 32 per cent compared to last year. Eastern Canada was accounted for 76 per cent of the weekly feeder exports to the US.

Alberta D2 and D3 cows traded $2-4/cwt stronger than the previous week. Butcher bulls traded $4/cwt higher. Although volumes at commercial auction facilities have remained manageable, there has been a large volume of grain fed cows on the market. Seasonally, cow prices are expected to strengthen from now right through until spring.

Bull

• U.S. packer demand for Canadian fed cattle has been strong. From January to November 2024, fed cattle shipments to the U.S. were the largest since 2010.
• Canadian cow marketings are poised to end 2024 smaller than 2023.
• Alberta auction mart reporting near record large volumes and record high prices

Bear

• Threat of U.S. tariff announcement
• Alberta fed cash-to-future basis remained weak at -$14.07/cwt
• U.S. steer carcass weights were reported at 959 pounds, only 1 pound shy of last years record high