Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of July 10, 2023

The Canfax fed steer price closed the week at around $242/cwt, $2.50/cwt lower than the previous week. This is the second week in a row that prices have declined. Last week, dressed sales were reported at mostly $406/cwt delivered. Most of the cattle that traded were scheduled for early August delivery. Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis strengthened from +$7.01/cwt to +$9.83/cwt. For the beginning of July, this is the strongest cash-to-futures basis since 2018. Slaughter cattle exports (fed cattle and cows) to the U.S. have been below last year for nine consecutive weeks.

The Canfax average feeder steer price was $8/cwt higher, while heifer prices strengthened $3.25/cwt. The largest week-over-week price increase was on feeders weighing more than 900 lb, with prices increasing $12-23/cwt. Heavier-weight feeder prices (800+lb) did set new annual highs last week. The forward delivery calf market was lightly tested last week; AB 5-weight steer calves for October/early November delivery traded from $367-391/cwt. Forward delivery calf prices are at a premium, compared to the spot market. Alberta auction volumes continue to be ample for this time of the year. In some instances, grass yearlings are being marketed 60 days earlier than normal. Weekly auction volumes totaled just more than 15,000 head, 8,000 head larger than the same week last year.

With dry conditions across parts of the Prairies, non-fed volumes continue to be larger than normal for this time of the year. Western Canadian cow slaughter volumes have been running above last year and the five-year average. Alberta D2 cows traded $1/cwt higher, and live trade was reported from $145‑160/cwt. D3 cows averaged $138/cwt. Butcher bulls traded $1.50/cwt higher, averaging $163/cwt, with a trading range from $145-187/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending June 24 totaled 1,061 head, the largest weekly export volume seen this year. 

Bull:

• Over the past month, pork cutout values have strengthened 24%.
• U.S. 90% lean trim prices have rallied in recent weeks, trading at the highest point this year.
• For the end of May, total beef in cold storge is 20% lower than last year.

Bear:

• On a monthly basis in 17 out of the past 25 years, Western Canadian fed have dropped from June to July.
• In four out of the past five years, Choice beef cutout values have declined from the first half of July to the second half of the month.
• Western Canadian packers are getting more grid cattle, which has moderated interest on the cash market.