Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of March 17, 2025

Alberta fed prices rebounded sharply after the largest week-over-week decrease of the year, following the announcement that tariffs on goods and services covered under CUSMA/USCMA will be paused until April 2nd. Fed cattle traded $5-6/cwt stronger than the previous week, this brings fed steers within $6/cwt from record high set back in February, with fed heifers only $8/cwt away. Optimism for the fed market remains strong, as spring is around the corner where annual highs are typically established. Dressed sales were reported from $450-$455/cwt delivered, $5-20/cwt stronger than the previous week. Competition was moderate with two Canadian packers and one U.S. packer noted. Cattle that traded were scheduled for delivery from last week of March to second half of April.

Last week, Canfax average feeder cattle closed the week $12-13/cwt stronger than the previous week. This strong rally puts 550 pound steers just $3/cwt below the annual high set in February, while 850 pound steers are back right at record high levels at $380/cwt. For the week ending March 1st, Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. totaled 6,666 head, 149 per cent higher than last year and the largest weekly exports since 2022. YTD export is at 33,025, 60 per cent above last year’s levels.

Last week, Alberta D2 and D3 cows traded $3-4/cwt stronger than the previous week. Both D2 and D3 cows are now within $6/cwt of the annual high established two weeks ago. The largest price rally last week was on butcher bulls with prices advancing $16/cwt and setting new highs. Non-fed volumes have tightened significantly over the past week with many auction facilities reporting around 100 head of cows at their weekly sales. There could be a few more calving culls over the next little bit, but supplies are expected to stay manageable.

Bull

• AB/SK March 1st cattle on feed inventories are 3 per cent lower than last year and the smallest March 1st inventory since 2019
• Nearby live cattle contract is within $4.10/cwt away from annual high, while nearby feeder contract established new high closing at $282/cwt
• Strong rally in the feeder market has put 550 pound steers within $3/cwt of the annual high, while 850 pound steers are back at annual high of $380/cwt

Bear

• Recession continues to be a concern
• Alberta cash-to-futures basis is reported at $18.70/cwt, $10.00/cwt weaker than the five-year average and the second largest decline since the first week of the year
• Statistics Canada principal field crop acres for the upcoming growing season. Canadian barley acres were reported at 6.3 million acres, 2 per cent lower than last year