Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of March 24, 2025

Alberta fed prices rebounded sharply after the largest week-over-week decrease of the year, following the announcement that tariffs on goods and services covered under CUSMA/USCMA will be paused until April 2nd. Fed cattle traded $5-6/cwt stronger than the previous week, this brings fed steers within $6/cwt from record high set back in February, with fed heifers only $8/cwt away. Optimism for the fed market remains strong, as spring is around the corner where annual highs are typically established. Dressed sales were reported from $450-$455/cwt delivered, $5-20/cwt stronger than the previous week. Competition was moderate with two Canadian packers and one U.S. packer noted. Cattle that traded were scheduled for delivery from last week of March to second half of April.

Last week, Canfax average feeder cattle closed the week $12-13/cwt stronger than the previous week. This strong rally puts 550 pound steers just $3/cwt below the annual high set in February, while 850 pound steers are back right at record high levels at $380/cwt. For the week ending March 1st, Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. totaled 6,666 head, 149 per cent higher than last year and the largest weekly exports since 2022. YTD export is at 33,025, 60 per cent above last year’s levels.

Last week, Alberta D2 and D3 cows traded $3-4/cwt stronger than the previous week. Both D2 and D3 cows are now within $6/cwt of the annual high established two weeks ago. The largest price rally last week was on butcher bulls with prices advancing $16/cwt and setting new highs. Non-fed volumes have tightened significantly over the past week with many auction facilities reporting around 100 head of cows at their weekly sales. There could be a few more calving culls over the next little bit, but supplies are expected to stay manageable.

Bull

• In January, Canadian beef exports to South Korea, Phillippines and SE Asia were above last year and the five-year average.
• According to the USDA, the All-fresh beef retail price set new record highs in February
• Last Friday’s USDA cattle on feed report should be viewed as neutral to slightly bullish as feedlot placements came in below expectations

Bear

• On a cash-to-cash basis, Alberta fed prices are trading at a sizeable discount against the U.S. market
• From their highs in mid-February lean hog contracts have declined 8 per cent
• Western Canadian packers continue to run reduced hours