Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of November 4, 2024

In Alberta last week, weighted average fed steer and heifer prices closed the week around $239.50/cwt live, $0.50/cwt lower than the previous week. Light trade was reported last week with dressed sales reported from $400.50-404.50/cwt FOB feedlot. Cattle that traded were scheduled for delivery anywhere from mid-November to mid-December delivery. U.S. packer interest was noted and light volumes of Western Canadian fed cattle were marketed South. These cattle will be priced off the five-area average. For the week ending October 26th, Western Canadian fed slaughter was just over 37,000 head, 16% below last year. This is the smallest non-holiday slaughter volume this year.

Last week, the Canfax average feeder steer and heifer price was $5/cwt higher. Alberta 550 lb calf prices have rallied $24-36/cwt over the past four weeks, heifer calf prices established new record highs while steer prices are $5/cwt shy of their highs set back this summer. Last week, feeders over 900 lb traded steady to $1/cwt lower. Alberta auction volumes totaled just over 95,000 head, the largest volume seen this year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending October 19th were 3,217 head, over the past three weeks feeder exports are 5,000 head below last year.

Alberta D2 cows traded $6/cwt lower and live trade was reported from $155-175/cwt. D3 cows averaged $155.50/cwt. While speculative feeder cow buying interest has improved, one major packer was not bidding on slaughter cows. Last week, butcher bulls traded $5/cwt lower, averaging $191.50/cwt, with a range from $170-215/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending October 19th totaled 523 head, 20% lower than the same week last year.

Bulls

• The Canadian dollar is trading at the lowest point since May 2020, this should bode well for Canadian beef exports.
• Open interest in the CME live cattle futures contracts is higher than last year.
• According to USDA, total beef in cold storage for the end of September is below last year.

Bear

• U.S. 50% trim prices are hovering near annual lows.
• Based off the five-year average Alberta fed basis levels historically weaken from October to November.
• U.S. election could add some volatility to commodity and financial markets.