Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of October 12, 2021

Western Canadian fed prices have chopped sideways for the past six weeks with prices ranging from $156-158/cwt. Western Canada has not been alone as eastern Canadian and US prices have also maintained a steady price trend. Dressed sales were reported from $263-265/cwt delivered, cattle were being scheduled for the week of November 1st and 8th delivery. Alberta fed cash to futures basis was reported at +$1.18/cwt compared to the five-year weekly average of -$2.35/cwt. Over the past four weeks western Canadian fed slaughter has averaged 45,662 head/week compared to 45,918 head/week last year. For the weeks ending September 25th and October 2nd, Canadian Prime and AAA percentage has been over 72%, new records for both respective weeks.

Calf volumes trended seasonally larger last week while yearling volumes continued to tighten. Feeder prices eased lower as the week progressed and no significant premiums or discounts were observed for deferred November delivery sales. Light calves less than 500 lb traded unevenly compared to the previous week with steers $1.50/cwt either side of steady and similar weight heifers traded over $2.50/cwt lower. Steer calves from 500-800 lb slipped $2.50-5.00/cwt lower last week while heifer prices were generally $1-3/cwt lower. Large feeders over 800 lb traded around $1-2/cwt lower than the previous week but good demand continues for feeders to place against the second quarter fed market. Weekly auction offerings surged 39% larger than the previous week to 50,014 head.

Moderate non-fed offerings last week saw slaughter cow prices ease seasonally lower than the previous week while butcher bull prices firmed modestly higher. D2 cows dipped $2.23/cwt from the previous week to average $79.17/cwt and D3 cows were $1.71/cwt lower at $69.43/cwt. Butcher bull prices firmed $1.05/cwt higher to average $106.20/cwt.

Bull

• The cash market has pulled cattle futures higher.
• YTD Canadian beef exports to the U.S. are significantly larger than year ago.
• Steer carcass weights were five pounds below year ago.

Bear

• Breakeven prices for fall placed calves are not profitable .
• The Canadian dollar broke through $0.80 resistance Friday on surging crude oil.
• Packer inventories have swelled out to mid-November.

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