Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of October 3, 2022

The Canfax fed steer and heifer price closed around $179.50/cwt, $1.75/cwt lower than the previous week. Last week, dressed sales were reported from $298.50-303.50/cwt FOB the lot. All three western Canadian packer bought cattle last week. Most of the cattle that traded were being scheduled for the first half of November delivery. The Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis weakened from -$13.21/cwt to -$14.08/cwt last week. Western Canadian fed slaughter for the week ending September 24^th totaled over 47,000 head, 7% lower than the same week last year.

The Canfax average feeder steer price was $6/cwt higher while heifer prices strengthened $2.25/cwt. Calf and feeder prices are trading at the highest point since late 2015/early 2016. Last week the larger price jump was on light weight calves under 500lbs. After spending the past ten months at a discount to the U.S. market, Alberta calf prices have just recently moved back to premium. On Wednesday the Western Canadian feeder index closed the week at $250.83/cwt, up $6.07/cwt. Last week Alberta auction volumes totaled just over 37,000 head, 1,500 head larger than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending September 17th totaled 1,541 head. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. have been below last year in six out of the past seven weeks.   

Alberta D2 cows traded $2.25/cwt higher last week, and live trade was reported from $95‑114/cwt. D3 cows averaged $88/cwt. Butcher bulls traded $3/cwt higher, averaging $132/cwt and trade was reported from $115-148/cwt. Butcher bull prices continue to trade near annual high levels. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending September 17th totaled 1,133 head, 20% higher than the same week last year.

Bull.

• The softer Canadian dollar bodes well for beef exports.
• U.S. beef sales for 22+ day delivery have been strong.
• According to USDA total US hogs and pigs on September 1^st were down 1% compared to last year  .

Bear.

• Based off the five-year average Alberta fed basis levels historically weaken from September to October.
• For the second half of September Western Canadian steer carcass weights are record large.
• Since September 20^th the December lean hog contract has dropped 14%.

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