Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of September 12, 2022

The Canfax fed steer and heifer price closed around $179.50/cwt, fully steady with the previous week. Last week, dressed sales were reported from $299.50-301.50/cwt FOB the lot. Lift times were all over the map depending on who bought the cattle. Cattle that traded last week were being scheduled for late September/mid-October delivery. The Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis weakened from -$5.74/cwt to -$9.30/cwt last week. For the beginning of September this is the weakest basis since 2013. Western Canadian fed slaughter for the week ending September 3^rd totaled over 43,000 head, 1% lower than the same week last year.

The Canfax average feeder steer and heifer price closed the week $1.50/cwt higher. Over the past five weeks, Alberta 550 lb calf prices have strengthened $27/cwt. For the beginning of September this is the second highest calf prices on record. Last week steers and heifers weighing from 8-900 lb traded steady to 5/cwt higher and are $44-46/cwt higher than last year. The Western Canadian feeder index closed the week at $245.55/cwt, up $4.94/cwt. Last week Alberta auction volumes totaled just over 37,000 head, 13,000 head smaller than last year. Canadian feeder cattle exports to the U.S. for the week ending August 27th totaled 4,395 head, the largest weekly export volumes since early June.

Competition on the non-fed market was limited with only one packer buying cows last week. Alberta D2 cows traded $6.50/cwt lower last week, and live trade was reported from $98‑115/cwt. D3 cows averaged $93.75/cwt. Butcher bulls traded $5/cwt lower, averaging $123/cwt and trade was reported from $110-140/cwt. Canadian butcher bull exports to the U.S. for the week ending August 27th totaled 1,118 head, 2% lower than the same week last year.

Bull.

• According to USDA, first quarter beef production for 2023 is forecasted to be down 6.8% compared to 2022.
• Western Canadian feedlots now have a cost of gain advantage over U.S. feedlots for the first time this year.
• Total U.S. beef exports for the month of July were 4% larger than last year.

Bear.

• According to Statistics Canada, total beef in cold storage on July 1, 2022 was up 21.5% compared to last year.
• Based on the five-year average, Alberta fed cash-to-futures basis levels historically weaken from August to September.
• U.S. chicken production was estimated at 829 million pounds, the largest weekly production since February 2021.

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