AB Direct - Steers

Live: ---
Rail: 404.00 del

AB Direct - Heifers

Live: ---
Rail: 404.00 del

US Trade- Steers

Live: 173.50-180.00 (KN, TX) 183.00-188.00 (NE)
Rail: 285.00-292.50 (NE, IA)

US Trade - Heifers

Live: 173.50-180.00 (KN, TX) 183.00-188.00 (NE)
Rail: 285.00-292.50 (NE, IA)

Canadian Dollar

$74.42
0.03
January 23, 2023 Current Markets & Forecasts
by Canfax

Canfax Weekly Article | Report for the week of January 23, 2023

Alberta direct cattle sales saw moderate volume trade last week, with weighted average steer prices firming $3/cwt higher than the previous week. The bulk of sales were reported dressed from $315-317/cwt delivered. Local live trade was also reported comparable with rail sales at $187.75/cwt. A significant portion of last week’s cash offering traded south at USD $240/cwt delivered and worked back to around a $190/cwt FOB the feedlot live equivalent. Western Canadian-fed slaughter for the week ending January 14 rallied 3% greater than the previous week to 40,893 head, and YTD is 11% larger at 80,651 head. Fed cattle/cow exports to the U.S. for the first week of 2023 were moderate at 8,563 head. Total export volumes for 2022 were 18% greater than 2021 at 754,151 head.

Compared to December, the biggest feeder price advancement has been on 4-700 lb steers, with prices up $17-24/cwt. On the flip side, the smallest price gains from December have been 900 lb+ heifers as prices are up $2/cwt. Over the previous two weeks, 5-600 lb steers have averaged on either side of $300/cwt, the highest price since September 2015. Alberta 850 lb feeder cash-to-futures basis was reported at +$1.58/cwt, stronger than last year and stronger than the five-year average. Most of the bigger-weight feeders purchased right now will be priced against the August live cattle contract. The August live cattle contract has been trading from USD $156-158/cwt, which is just shy of the all-time high set in 2014.

D2 cow prices are currently trading around $100/cwt; for the month of January this is the highest price since 2016. Alberta cow prices are still trading at a discount to the U.S. utility cow market, but the price spread has narrowed. In December, Alberta cow prices were trading at roughly $14/cwt discount, whereas now the discount is closer to $5/cwt. Over the previous two weeks, Western Canadian cow slaughter has averaged more than 9,000 head per week. Compared to the first half of January, non-fed volumes through commercial auction facilities have already started to tighten. Since the start of the year, Ontario cow prices have been flat, averaging in the mid $90s/cwt.

Bull

  • U.S. January 1 cattle on feed inventories were 2.9% lower than a year ago at 11.7 million head.
  • Front-end market-ready supplies remain manageable.
  • Retail beef margins are above average.

Bear

  • Seasonally sluggish beef demand will continue.
  • Fed prices typically soften through February.
  • Carcass weights are expected to remain elevated through the first quarter.

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About the Author

Canfax

For over 50 years, Canfax has provided expert analysis of markets and trends in the ever-changing North American beef industry. In this new millennium, cattlemen, feedlot managers, and agri-business professionals will continue to rely on up-to-the-minute information as an essential tool for maximizing profit in today’s beef sector. Whether your operation needs to plan for three hours or three years into the future, Canfax delivers timely, accurate information for 21st Century cattle industry professionals. Those interested in becoming Canfax members can sign up on the website at www.canfax.ca.

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Cattle Report

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Steers

Live: ---
Rail: 404.00 del

Heifers

Live: ---
Rail: 404.00 del

Choice Steers

Live: 173.50-180.00 (KN, TX) 183.00-188.00 (NE)
Rail: 285.00-292.50 (NE, IA)

Choice Heifers

Live: 173.50-180.00 (KN, TX) 183.00-188.00 (NE)
Rail: 285.00-292.50 (NE, IA)

Boner Cows

Over 500 lbs: US$ 202.70

Canadian Dollar

$74.42   0.03

Livestock Price Insurance Index

Expiry Fed Feeder Calf
23-Aug-23 224 288 -
25-Sep-23 224 298 322
23-Oct-23 224 300 322
20-Nov-23 222 298 320
18-Dec-23 222 290 316
15-Jan-24 224 290 -
12-Feb-24 228 298 332
Last Updated on June 1, 2023